The Mystery of Market Movements: An Archetypal Approach to Investment Forecasting and Modelling (Bloomberg) by Niklas Hageback

A quantifiable framework for unlocking the unconscious forces that shape markets There has long been a notion that subliminal forces play a great part in causing the seemingly irrational financial bubbles, which conventional economic theory, again and again, fails to explain. However, these forces, sometimes labeled 'animal spirits' or 'irrational exuberance, have remained elusive - until now. The Mystery of Market Movements provides you with a methodology to timely predict and profit from changes in human investment behaviour based on the workings of the collective unconscious. Niklas Hageback draws in on one of psychology's most influential ideas - archetypes - to explain how they form investor's perceptions and can be predicted and turned into profit. The Mystery of Market Movements provides; A review of the collective unconscious and its archetypes based on Carl Jung's theories and empirical case studies that highlights and assesses the influences of the collective unconscious on financial bubbles and zeitgeists For the first time being able to objectively measure the impact of archetypal forces on human thoughts and behaviour with a view to provide early warning signals on major turns in the markets. This is done through a step-by-step guide on how to develop a measurement methodology based on an analysis of the language of the unconscious; figurative speech such as metaphors and symbolism, drawn out and deciphered from Big Data sources, allowing for quantification into time series The book is supplemented with an online resource that presents continuously updated bespoken archetypal indexes with predictive capabilities to major financial indexes Investors are often unaware of the real reasons behind their own financial decisions. This book explains why psychological drivers in the collective unconscious dictates not only investment behaviour but also political, cultural and social trends. Understanding these forces allows you to stay ahead of the curve and profit from market tendencies that more traditional methods completely overlook. Editorial Reviews From the Inside Flap Underlying the rise and collapse of the housing bubble, the dot.com upsurge and crash, and the worldwide economic climb and breakdown, are irrational impulses-from mania to panic-that play a major role in collective human investment behaviour. The Mystery of Market Movements attempts to answer the key questions of when and why financial bubbles are likely to form by exploring the collective unconscious and its archetypes. Armed with an understanding of how archetypes drive the financial markets, investors will be able to better identify irrational behaviours and the hidden investment opportunities they create. As financial expert Niklas Hageback explains, financial markets, with their extensive output and frequent updates of real-time data, provide fertile ground for statistical testing of the archetype hypothesis. By building a record of the appearance of archetypal symbols and analysing the frequency of their appearance versus financial indexes, it is possible to predict price trends over time. The Mystery of Market Movements includes an empirically verified measurement methodology that is designed to capture the subliminal forces that influence human behaviour and investment decisions, in particular, and clearly demonstrates how archetypes can give rise to financial bubbles. In clear and understandable terms, Niklas Hageback outlines the archetypal conceptual measurement methodology model and offers insight on the statistical methods used to develop and test archetypal symbol time series. He discusses the model's foundational building blocks and explores the components that constitute the measurement units. He also reveals the data sources and includes samples of how the symbol selection is conducted. The Mystery of Market Movements is a practical guide to understanding archetypal influences. The website offers access to continuously updated indexes that will give investors the ability to track changes in archetypal mood patterns and boost their ability to make wise investment decisions. From the Back Cover Discover how human behaviour affects the global marketplace Throughout history financial bubbles-that are often based on irrational human behaviour-have periodically wrought havoc on the world economic stage. Conventional economic models have failed to predict how erratic behaviour influences the marketplace. The Mystery of Market Movements unravels the secrets of when and why financial bubbles are likely to form by exploring the influence of the collective unconscious and its archetypes. As financial expert Niklas Hageback explains, archetypes are the unconscious mental images that affect our behaviour and judgement without our being consciously aware of it. The Mystery of Market Movements contains an introduction to Carl Jung's view of the collective unconscious and shows how archetypes activate the symbols that can be used to measure human behaviour. The author then explores how archetypes and symbols directly affect the market and outlines the groundbreaking archetypal conceptual measurement methodology model. In accessible terms, Hageback discusses the model's basic building blocks and explains the various components that comprise the measurement units. He offers information on the data sources and includes a wealth of samples of how the symbol selection is conducted. With The Mystery of Market Movements and its companion website www.forecastrix.com, you have the information necessary to understand archetypal influences in the marketplace and the tools to leverage that knowledge to ensure strong investment returns. About the Author NIKLAS HAGEBACK has extensive experience in the financial sector working at tier-one financial institutions and consulting firms, such as Deutsche Bank, KPMG, and Goldman Sachs, holding regional risk management and oversight roles in both Europe and Asia. This included leading the implementation of operational risk and economic capital frameworks and also engaging in the public debate through a number of articles published, public presentations and regulatory lobbying. He currently resides in Hong Kong where he is running a money management firm as well as managing a portfolio of financial software start-up firms with a special focus on research and product development in the area of behavioural finance.